Matt Chapman racing tips: My 5-1 Lockinge winner… and why I might look silly but just can’t have Passenger for Derby

WHO needs Baaeed when you have Mutasaabeq?

It might just be another blue and white party at Newbury this afternoon.

GettyChappers loves the look of monster Mutasaabeq in the red-hot Lockinge[/caption]

The Charlie Hills-trained Mutasaabeq tackles the Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge, the feature on ITV Racing.

The one-mile event has been landed by some of the sport’s great performers, including legend Frankel and Baaeed, who beat Real World and Chindit (goes again) last year.

Like Baaeed, Mutasaabeq carries the famous colours of the Shadwell Estate (once Hamdan Al Maktoum) whose silks also enjoyed Lockinge success via Mustashry in 2019.

In reality, of course, I’m not suggesting Mutassabeq is anywhere near a Baaeed, but he was mighty impressive on his comeback run when trouncing Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Native Trail in the bet365 Mile at Newmarket.

The simple truth is Mutasaabeq has always promised a lot. He was only a 6-1 chance for the 2021 2,000 Guineas, eventually finishing seventh behind Poetic Flare.

Since then it’s been hard to know whether seven furlongs or a mile was his best trip.

MUTASAABEQ (3.35 Newbury) looked top class on his return at Newmarket. This mile division is wide open and he can take this if he repeats his run from the Rowley Mile earlier this month.

I suspect he’s just needed time and everything about that win the other day suggested he had come of age.

Mutasaabeq will have to fend off some exciting challengers if he is to emulate Baaeed.

The latter’s trainer, William Haggas, saddles talented My Prospero, while Godolphin rely on Breeders’ Cup winner Modern Games.

Laurel could be anything, while Jadoomi has done little wrong in his career.

My Prospero might well be the best of these at the end of the season, but having had a little issue that stopped him running at Ascot a couple of weeks ago he could need this.

A tad further might be ideal, too.

At three, My Prospero finished third behind Coroebus in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot and ended the campaign in third behind Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes.

Modern Games landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and then the French 2,000 Guineas and Breeders’ Cup Mile in his Classic season.

He was caught out by an enterprisingly ridden winner at Keeneland on his return.

Laurel promises much for John & Thady Gosden and will be popular with Frankie on.

The Kingman filly has only been beaten once, and that was in Group 1 company in the Sun Chariot. She gets weight here.

It’s a race that promises much. I hope Mutasaabeq comes out on top.

One of the biggest talking points this week came in the Dante, when Passenger dead-heated for third behind The Foxes.

There’s no doubt Passenger was denied a clear run from two furlongs out to a furlong from home, and with an uninterrupted trip would have been closer.

That said, I was surprised the ‘in-running’ comment read: “Ridden and ran on when clear inside final furlong.”

That suggests Passenger was flying at the finish, or at least staying on strongly, and I’m not sure he was.

Time will tell, but Passenger’s pedigree is not all stamina, indeed he’s got sprinting relations.

Ulysses was terrific, and he just about stayed a mile and a half, but he was ultimately best at two furlongs shorter when landing an Eclipse and Juddmonte International. He flopped in the Derby.

Time will tell. And on the first Saturday in June I might look silly.

But I’m not taking Passenger as a strong stayer right now and suspect his price of 8-1 is on the short side.

The Betfred Derby is wide open, but the two I like against the field are Military Order and Dubai Mile.

As I wrote last week, Dubai Mile ran a terrific trial in the 2,000 Guineas when fifth, while Military Order is improving fast and a worthy 4-1 favourite after Lingfield.

Epsom’s showpiece promises to be a terrific betting heat. I like that.